In Atlanta’s Old Fourth Ward, small business owner Maria Alvarez stares at her bakery’s ledger, her heart sinking as new tariff uncertainties threaten her plans to sell to a larger chain. Middle market mergers and acquisitions (M&A), expected to surge in 2025 with a favorable regulatory climate, now face a wild card: proposed U.S. tariffs that could disrupt dealmaking. For Maria, employees like warehouse worker Jamal Carter, and Atlanta’s tech-driven community, the shifting landscape stirs a mix of hope and fear for their futures.
Middle market M&A, typically deals valued between $10 million and $1 billion, was poised for a robust 2025, driven by declining interest rates, robust private equity capital, and relaxed antitrust regulations. Atlanta, a hub for tech and logistics, saw a 9.8% rise in global M&A deal value in 2024, with middle market firms like Stord’s recent acquisition of UPS’s Ware2Go signaling momentum. However, new tariff policies announced in April 2025, including sector-specific measures under the incoming U.S. administration, have introduced volatility, with 25% of private equity firms reporting deal disruptions due to tariff concerns. These policies, potentially escalating trade tensions, could raise costs and dampen valuations, particularly for Atlanta’s logistics and tech sectors reliant on global supply chains.
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For Maria, who hoped to sell her bakery to fund her daughter’s college education, the uncertainty is crushing. “I was counting on a deal to secure our future,” she said, her voice heavy with worry. “Now, buyers are hesitating.” Jamal, employed at a Ware2Go warehouse acquired by Stord, fears job cuts if deals falter. “I need this job to pay my rent,” he said, his hands gripping a crate. Local coffee shop owner Aisha Thompson, near Tech Square, banks on tech workers’ business. “If M&A slows, so do my customers,” she said, steaming milk with a frown.
Atlanta’s economy, contributing $43 billion and 25% of Georgia’s tech jobs, thrives on middle market firms in logistics, like Stord, and tech, like CallRail. The city’s M&A activity was expected to grow, with private equity firms eyeing mid-sized companies for their scalability. Yet, tariffs threaten to increase costs for logistics firms, squeezing margins and lowering valuations. The EY US economic outlook projects 1.1% GDP growth for 2025, down from 1.7%, with core inflation rising to 3.5–4%, further challenging dealmakers.
“This uncertainty is a gut punch to our plans,” said Stord CEO Sean Henry. “But we’re focused on helping workers like Jamal and clients stay resilient.” Mayor Andre Dickens added, “Atlanta’s strength is its people. We’ll navigate this to keep opportunities alive for Maria and Aisha.”
Reactions reflect a tense balance. Sarah Lin, a tech startup founder, worries about her company’s sale prospects. “Tariffs could scare off buyers,” she said, her laptop open to financials. But David Morales, a Newnan resident, sees a silver lining. “If deals slow, maybe our roads won’t be so clogged,” he said, stuck in traffic. Analyst Jane Mercer noted, “Tariffs could cut middle market deal volume by 10%, but strategic buyers might still find value.”
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The implications hit hard. For Maria, a delayed sale could mean dipping into savings. For Jamal, job security hangs in the balance, impacting his ability to afford childcare. Aisha’s coffee shop, reliant on tech foot traffic, faces leaner months if M&A stalls. Yet, Atlanta’s resilience shines, with firms like Stord leveraging technology to stay competitive. A potential rebound in late 2025, if tariff clarity emerges, could revive deals.
Looking ahead, dealmakers face a volatile first half, with the Federal Reserve likely holding rates steady until mid-2025, complicating financing. Community concerns, like traffic and environmental impacts from logistics growth, persist. For Maria, dreaming of her daughter’s graduation, and Jamal, hoping for steady paychecks, the tariff wild card tests their resolve. As Aisha serves coffee and Sarah refines her pitch, Atlanta’s middle market M&A scene remains a story of human ambition, navigating uncertainty in a city built on grit and growth.
